{"id":241,"date":"2017-03-16T21:24:15","date_gmt":"2017-03-16T21:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nestegginvestments.co.nz\/?p=241"},"modified":"2017-03-16T21:24:15","modified_gmt":"2017-03-16T21:24:15","slug":"fund-manager-insights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nestegginvestments.co.nz\/index.php\/2017\/03\/16\/fund-manager-insights\/","title":{"rendered":"Fund manager insights"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-242 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/nestegginvestments.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/lightbulb_insight-300x213.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"213\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nestegginvestments.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/lightbulb_insight-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/nestegginvestments.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/lightbulb_insight.png 368w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">This week I attended an investment conference where a number of fund managers presented on their funds.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">While of course there was an element of salesmanship in the presentations (each manager made a compelling case why investors should choose their fund), I thought I would note some of the insights and observations that came from the presentations.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">In no particular order, fund manager observations:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">The outlook for NZ equities: <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Risky. <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">NZ equities have been driven up by the quest for yield and the growth in ETFs (passive, index tracking funds).<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Witness foreign ownership of NZ equities which has risen from ~30% in 2012 to over 50% currently.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Watch out if US long term interest rates go over 3%; investors will no longer own equities for income.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">The solution: look for value stocks and those with pricing power.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Australian equities: <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Expensive.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Currently there is a historically wide gap when comparing market prices to earnings\/dividend yields.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Contrarian investing is essential (but its not easy to do).<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">The case for global equities (excluding US): Little correlation between NZ economy and global equities, therefore necessary for risk mitigation.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Over the last 7 years, US returns have averaged 12% pa v rest of world 4% pa.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Look for this to swing around.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">US$ at 15 year highs, unlikely to go much higher.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">There is a wide opportunity set.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Look for owner operated businesses (skin in the game) and those with real competitive advantages.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Investing in global infrastructure: Interest rates are likely to rise; historically 2\/3 driven by inflation.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">What does this mean for infrastructure businesses?<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Overall negative, as investors may seek yield elsewhere.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">But positive for infrastructure businesses where the cost base is mostly fixed, but where they have the ability to increase prices with inflation.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">The trick is to find these infrastructure companies \u2013 good sectors are toll road companies, airports, CPI linked businesses.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">The case for investing in AREITs (Australasian commercial property funds):<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">This sector will be fuelled by Asian growth \u2013 population growth, urbanisation, growth in middle classes.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Will drive demand for commercial property across the region, including Australia &amp; NZ.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Natural resources stocks: <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Low correlation with other equity market sectors \u2013 diversification benefits. <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Commodity prices have recovered, but expected to keep increasing, supported by supply constraints caused by low capex spending.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Electric vehicles, batteries expected to drive growth in lithium, copper resources.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Aggregate (stone chips) another growth area.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">The case for India:<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">In 10 years, India\u2019s economy will be 3<\/span><sup><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;\">rd<\/span><\/sup><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\"> largest in world.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Inflation is under control.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Regulatory environment improving.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Household debt is low and education levels\/living standards are improving.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Currently penetration of consumer goods is low.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">India is also a domestic driven economy \u2013 largely immune from global shocks.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">The case for downside protection:<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">The environment for equities worldwide has deteriorated: increased political risks, interest rates rising, profit margins falling, declining globalisation, less favourable demographics.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Holding both long and short positions can insulate against market turbulence. <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Less upside in rising markets, but provides downside protection in falling markets.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">And finally, please note that none of the above constitutes investment advice or should be considered as recommendations \u2013 just interesting observations from a diverse collection of fund managers.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Dean Edwards<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-AU\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week I attended an investment conference where a number of fund managers presented on their funds.\u00a0 While of course there was an element of salesmanship in the presentations (each manager made a compelling case why investors should choose their&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This week I attended an investment conference where a number of fund managers presented on their funds. 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